Earthquake Expert Yoshinori Moriwaki: A Magnitude 7 Earthquake Could Strike Cyprus

Moriwaki, a high-level construction engineer, architect, and earthquake specialist, emphasized the seismic risk facing Cyprus, stating, "Cyprus is one of the dangerous regions in this regard."

Moriwaki, who participated in earthquake symposiums in Siirt, shared his insights with an AA correspondent about fault lines in Turkey. He pointed out that the Eastern Anatolian Fault Line extends from Elazığ, Kahramanmaraş, and Hatay through Adana and finally to Cyprus, and reiterated, "A magnitude 7 earthquake could occur in Cyprus. This region is one of the dangerous ones in this respect."

He further elaborated:
"In Turkey, earthquakes occur sequentially like dominoes. The second region of concern includes Bingöl-Karlıova, Muş, and Bitlis. The third region is the Aegean side, which has very thin and short fault lines. Therefore, although there are frequent earthquakes, they are not typically very large.

The fourth region is the Marmara Region. The 1999 earthquake on the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Line affected Gölcük and Yalova. The North Anatolian Fault Line roughly has eight fault lines. If one of the fault lines in the Marmara Region breaks, it could result in a magnitude 6.8 earthquake, and if several break together, a magnitude 7 earthquake could occur."

Moriwaki mentioned that the major earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023, released significant accumulated energy, which suggests that another major earthquake in the region is not expected soon. He noted that the earthquakes also impacted Hatay, which has a soft ground, and if an earthquake occurs in the sea near Cyprus, the region could be affected again due to its ground conditions.

Moriwaki emphasized the importance of being prepared for earthquakes, noting that if proper precautions are taken, damage can be significantly mitigated. He provided advice for those looking to buy or rent property:
"First, check if the ground is good or bad. This information can be found online by region. If the ground is good, the earthquake travels quickly, and the shaking is less severe. Soft ground is bad. In the 1999 Izmit earthquake, Istanbul did not suffer much, but buildings in Avcılar, despite being farther away, collapsed due to the soft ground. Second, check if the building has a permit and occupancy certificate. If it doesn't, it's unclear what materials were used, whether corners were cut, or if poor-quality materials were used. Third, check if the building was constructed before or after 2000 because the building codes changed in 1999. Buildings constructed after 2000 are generally good because they were built according to the new regulations, which mandated soil testing and improvements if necessary."

He also stressed the need for urban transformation or reinforcement as needed to prepare for earthquakes:
"You need to look at the columns. If the rebar inside the concrete is rusty, it swells and damages the concrete, meaning the building could collapse during an earthquake. Municipalities need to carry out urban transformation, and residents need to allow this. Some buildings can be reinforced."