Gökhan Altıner writes..."The Basis of Christodoulides's latest promise: Who is Behind It?"

Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides recently declared that there would be a positive development in the Cyprus issue before the end of the year. But how realistic is this promise?

As someone who regularly hosts guests from both right-wing and left-wing parties to discuss the current situation, a clear divide in opinions becomes evident. Right-wing politicians consistently express skepticism, attributing the stagnation in negotiations to the Greek Cypriot administration. Just last week, President Tatar called me from Azerbaijan and reiterated that for talks to resume, the Greek Cypriots must take specific steps, especially regarding political equality and sovereignty. Importantly, Tatar's stance on Cyprus policy has full backing from the Ankara government, which sees eye to eye with him on this matter.

Despite the honeymoon phase between Turkish President Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, Ankara treats the Cyprus issue as a separate dossier, maintaining a firm stance.

On the other hand, left-wing politicians we’ve hosted suggest that positive developments in the Cyprus issue might occur post-September's New York summit, possibly leading to a new summit akin to Crans Montana. They believe Washington might play a crucial role, potentially persuading Ankara to engage in a new negotiation process. If the U.S. intervenes, Christodoulides' promise might indeed hold weight. Otherwise, from Tatar's and Ankara’s perspectives, no significant progress seems likely at this moment.

In recent discussions with Prof. Dr. Mehmet Çağlar, he emphasized the importance of the New York summit and anticipated significant steps in the Cyprus issue thereafter. Concurrently, Turkey is striving to maintain good relations with the EU, neighboring countries, and the U.S., seemingly shelving conflicts. This raises the question: Will there be a breakthrough in the Cyprus issue amidst these diplomatic efforts?

Personally, I remain skeptical but acknowledge the serious discussions about potential progress. The influence behind Christodoulides’ promise might be the U.S. administration. We’ll have to wait and see.

Will There Be an Erdoğan-Mitsotakis Meeting?

President Erdoğan is set to visit Northern Cyprus on July 19th, not the 20th as initially planned. Although unrelated to our topic, it is widely speculated that Erdoğan's visit will influence the fate of the UBP Congress. Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis will visit South Cyprus on July 20th. There is speculation about a potential meeting between the two leaders in the buffer zone, though no such program is confirmed yet. Personally, I doubt such a meeting will occur, despite the honeymoon phase between Ankara and Athens. Both sides remain far apart on the Cyprus issue. If a meeting were to happen, it would signal imminent new steps in the Cyprus issue.

In summary, we’ll have to wait and see. July 20th appears to be a significant date. Erdoğan's visit might bring many changes. With September approaching, the outcomes of the New York summit could be pivotal. Perhaps UN Secretary-General Guterres might succeed in bringing both leaders together for a trilateral meeting.

Let’s hope for the best. One thing is certain: the status quo cannot continue indefinitely. Changes are on the horizon, but what will they be? What is the basis behind Christodoulides' promise? Only time will tell.