Ulaş Barış writes..."A Poll, A Result, and an Early Analysis…"

The Migration, Identity, and Rights Studies Center (CMIRS) announced the results of its June 2024 survey.

The survey, conducted with a total of 500 individuals, indicates that despite it being 1.5 years away, the upcoming Presidential election is already heating up.

CMIRS has been doing significant work on surveys and data, long seen as one of the country's biggest deficiencies.

As you know, within the thoroughly corrupt system of Northern Cyprus, surveys have not been spared.

Alongside everyone establishing survey companies and engaging in various political alliances, some of our educational institutions have conducted absurd research leading to shattered trust.

Still, as I mentioned, CMIRS, under the coordination of dear Mine Yücel, has been trying to perform this vital task to the best of its ability for a long time.

If we set aside thoughts on the state of emergency and turn to the survey results, I believe we are faced with results indicating a firmly established two-polar (or party-based) system.

For example, in response to the question "If elections were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" the top two spots are significantly dominated by CTP and UBP, with a large margin.

Leading with 33.5%, CTP is followed closely by UBP, trailing by only 4 percentage points. The following parties rank almost 30 points behind in order: TDP, YDP, DP, and HP.

Although only TDP stands among those surpassing the electoral threshold, these results indicate that nearly all have the potential to surpass the threshold.

Furthermore, while you might expect CTP, which is only 4 points ahead of such a weakened UBP, to be much further ahead, things are different in Northern Cyprus.

In this context, it's hard not to agree with the comment made by my dear friend Rasıh Reşat in his article yesterday regarding this survey: "During election time, UBP can close such a small gap regardless and emerge as the leading party."

In addition, because parties hovering around the electoral threshold have the potential to be the country's next coalition partner, they are crucial for both CTP and UBP.

UBP, being very astute in recognizing this, is always proactive and determines its government after the elections.

However, this cannot be said for CTP. Yet if CTP refrains from the delusion of sole governance and opts to form alliances with smaller left-wing parties following the election, it may find itself compelled to form a government with right-wing parties.

However, setting aside old grudges and embracing an agreement with TDP could prove advantageous for both the Presidential election and regular elections. Therefore, CTP should pray for TDP to surpass the threshold and secure 3-4 seats.

I also believe that an alliance should be formed for the Presidential election.

However, I must add a condition to this belief because if Turkey and the Turkish side do not change their current uncompromising stance on the Cyprus issue, Ersin Tatar could still win the election once again.

But looking at the numbers, although Tufan Erhürman is seen as the favorite for October 2025, the gap between them is not expected to be very wide.

In fact, I previously mentioned in one of my recent articles discussing surveys and examining results similar to those of CMIRS.

In this survey, Tufan Erhürman is leading with 35.5%.

Ersin Tatar, who does not receive support from either UBP or well-known right-wing circles, is only 5 points behind. If you ask how this could be, I'd say, "because of unknown right-wing circles."

Due to the consequences of population policies that have shattered our country's demographic structure, there is no longer a voter base in Northern Cyprus that a classic Turkish Cypriot politician can mobilize. In fact, according to some surveys, our proportion has dropped to around 33%. Therefore, it's now very easy for unknown circles to come and vote decisively.

Still, looking at the survey, it's observed that the combined support for federation advocates such as Erhürman and Mehmet Harmancı is around 43%.

The aforementioned CTP-TDP alliance is crucial at this point. Because, just like in the 2020 elections, CTP played a significant role in Mustafa Akıncı's defeat, Harmancı also has the capacity to play a role.

In fact, if you ask me, it's possible for Harmancı, who appears with an 7.6% vote share in the survey, to achieve a success similar to Akıncı's in the first round of the 2015 election.

Ultimately, we're talking about a political figure who received 53% of the vote from Nicosia, a phenomenon.

Therefore, I hope Harmancı's call for an alliance with CTP, mentioned in a my live broadcast two weeks ago, will be taken into account.

Another name valued by about 7.5% of those surveyed is Kudret Özersay. It's important to emphasize Özersay's rising trend in addressing corruption issues in recent times.

However, one of the most interesting results of the survey is attributed to Serdar Denktaş.

According to the survey, Denktaş ranks fifth with 5% of the vote and does not leave the top spot in the question "who would be your second choice?"

Regarding that question, Denktaş, who is the second choice of the largest segment with 15%, should focus on this issue.

Because it seems that Denktaş Jr. is starting to gain a non-partisan place in the eyes of the entire society, a foundation. Although this positive situation may not yet be reflected in voter percentages, the fact that 'Serdar abi' is seen as a 'second choice' in politics is an important detail.

For instance, Tufan Hoca, who is the winner of the survey, ranks fourth in being the second choice, Tatar ranks last, indicating that neutral voters are not ideologically committed.

It's also noteworthy that former CTP minister Özdil Nami ranks second in second choices (13.6). This result indicates that if Tufan Hoca wants to continue as prime minister, CTP is not without alternatives.

Again, in this regard, Harmancı's 11% share is parallel to what I have described. So the path to success is open for Harmancı.

As I said, there is still 1.5 years until the elections, and a lot of water will flow under the bridge.

But I must repeat the same reality: what will decide who wins this election is Turkey's stance on the Cyprus issue.

The race will be shaped by this stance. Therefore, what I have written is an early survey comment and analysis.

I hope that by this time next year, we will be discussing the details of the agreement reached on the island.

Otherwise, I have no desire or remedy to go through an election disaster like 2020...