CMIRS Poll: Ersin Tatar Leads Presidential Race

According to the latest poll published in March 2025 by the Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS), the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) holds a narrow lead in a potential general election, while incumbent President Ersin Tatar leads the presidential race.

The fourth phase of the CMIRS survey, which is conducted quarterly with the participation of 500 respondents, asked participants: “If an election were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for?” and “Who would be your first choice in a presidential election?”
In the general election scenario, the results show CTP slightly ahead of the National Unity Party (UBP), with the gap between the two described as very narrow. Among the other parties, the Rebirth Party (Yeniden Doğuş Partisi) and the Communal Democracy Party (TDP) were the only ones projected to surpass the electoral threshold.
In the presidential race, Ersin Tatar led with 35.11% of the vote, just ahead of CTP leader Tufan Erhürman, who secured 33.83%. The poll also showed a decline in support for other prominent figures such as Mehmet Harmancı and Kudret Özersay compared to previous surveys.
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